Archive for March, 2015

An important long-term test for stocks could be here now

From Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions: 

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (monthly chart) has a unique long-term price test at hand, right now.

It’s a combo of resistance tied to the 1987 highs and 2002 lows and Fibonacci extension tied to the 2007 highs and 2009 lows.

We don’t see a combination like this too often. My gut says the outcome here could be a tad bit important.

Joe Friday, just the facts… The outcome at (1) might be important two months from now, and two years from now!


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Sunday, March 29th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on An important long-term test for stocks could be here now

Speculators are piling back into one of the world’s most dangerous ETFs

From Bloomberg: 

Speculators are again piling into an exchange-traded note that lets them bet on how long days of calm will last in the U.S. stock market.

The trade, using a six-year-old security known as VXX that sees more average daily volume than shares of Microsoft Corp. and Facebook Inc., has usually backfired amid the biggest bull market since the 1990s. That hasn’t curbed its popularity, with the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN poised for an eighth straight week of inflows, a streak not seen in three years. Shares outstanding in the note are at an all-time high.

Bears are betting this time will be different with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index flat for the year and stuck at the same level it reached in November. Owning the note could pay off should any number of concerns, from declining corporate profits to conflict in the Middle East, open the door to volatility in a stock market that has been mostly immune to it.

“It just feels like there’s a bit more of a worry that something could go awry,” said Steve Sosnick, an equity risk manager at Timber Hill, the market-making unit of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers Group Inc. “The winning streak of the buy-the-dips strategy could be coming to an end, as all winning streaks do.”

Noisy Market

Ways to speculate on how noisy the stock market will be have exploded in the last decade with the advent of products tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. Strategies include relatively simple hedges against equity losses, such as owning a security that aims to mimic the VIX.

VXX, one of the most popular ways to bet on bigger market swings, has absorbed $715 million in seven consecutive weeks of inflows, its longest streak of inflows since one ending in July 2012. The infusion of fresh cash has continued this week, swelling its market value to $1.5 billion, the highest since September 2013.

At the same time, short-sellers in VXX — people effectively betting the bull market will persist — have dropped out. Short interest has slid 35 percent since October, falling to the lowest in more than seven months last week, data compiled by Markit Ltd. show.

Sustained gains in U.S. stocks have proven elusive. The S&P 500 has dropped 2.3 percent this week, posting at least three straight days of losses for the fourth time in 2015. The measure has gone 27 days without advancing in back-to-back sessions, the longest stretch since 1994.


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Fed Guesses

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 2,058.34 at 9:38 a.m. in New York. The VIX dropped 1.5 percent to 15.56.

Traders have had to contend with a resurgence of turmoil in the Middle East, signs that U.S. company profits are in freefall and decreased buybacks from corporations as the first-quarter earnings season begins in April. Muddled messages from the Federal Reserve have spurred hedging, according to Justin Golden at Lake Hill Capital Management LLC.

“There are lots of different ways to hedge equity exposure at this critical time when investors are trying to interpret every word out of the Fed to gauge when rates lift off,” Golden, a partner at Lake Hill, wrote in an e-mail. His firm trades options on equity indexes and commodities. “Currently, VXX is the preferred method.”

Past surges in the VIX note’s popularity have been less than prescient in predicting more turbulence. Shares outstanding in VXX climbed to multiple records throughout 2013, a year when the S&P 500 gained 30 percent and U.S. shares posted one of the broadest advances in history. A high on July 24, 2014, came just before a 3.8 percent August rally in the equities gauge.

Daily fluctuations in U.S. stocks have made this retreat seem more painful than it actually has been, according to Dominic Salvino at Group One Trading LP, a market maker for VIX options. The S&P 500 is down just 2.9 percent from a record reached March 2 and the U.S. benchmark gauge has already endured declines of this magnitude three times in 2015.

‘Heavy Panic’

“There’s still not a heavy panic out there,” Salvino, a specialist on the CBOE floor for Group One Trading, said by phone Thursday. “You’re not seeing a whole lot of fear. It seems like a lot, but we’ve been up for three consecutive years and we’re still in the 2,100 range.”

The VIX climbed 2.3 percent to 15.8 on Thursday, below its average of 16.65 for 2015. Futures on the volatility gauge expiring in April ended Thursday at 16.48, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Contracts expiring in May closed at 17.83, while June futures ended the day at 18.28.

To U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s Bill Merz, the interest in VXX is indicative of a change in mindset among investors about stocks’ resilience as monetary policy diverges and other markets show signs of weakness. Positions held in the three largest exchange-traded products appreciating with VIX futures have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, Bloomberg data show.

“There’s been a big shift occurring in volatility ETFs and ETNs,” Merz, a strategist on the derivatives and structured products team at U.S. Bank, said by phone. His firm oversees $126 billion. “It appears as though investors are moving back to a long volatility bias versus a short one. VXX is the biggest indicator of that.”

Sunday, March 29th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on Speculators are piling back into one of the world’s most dangerous ETFs

Gold, Silver Climb on Week; Bullion Silver Eagles Surge – CoinNews.net


Financial Express
Gold, Silver Climb on Week; Bullion Silver Eagles Surge
CoinNews.net
Precious metals slipped on Friday, snapping multi-session winning streaks as the U.S. dollar rebounded and safe-haven demand waned. Still, gold and silver scored weekly gains of more than 1%. Ending lower for the first time in eight sessions, gold for
Gold price gains seasonal glow, silver loses shineFinancial Express
Gold to Fuel Silver UplegMiningFeeds.com
Gold prices rebound on seasonal demand; silver prices extend lossesBusiness Today

all 9 news articles »

Sunday, March 29th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on Gold, Silver Climb on Week; Bullion Silver Eagles Surge – CoinNews.net

This indicator has predicted every major market plunge in the past 30 years. What it’s saying now…

From Tom McClellan’s Chart in Focus:

Before each of the really ugly bear markets of the past 30 years, there has been an important signal from housing data well ahead of time. We do not have such a signal now, and so that portends more upside in the months ahead for stock prices.

In fact, the past 3 months have seen a pretty substantial upsurge, especially in the Northeast and South regions of the USA as tracked by the Census Department. That takes the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales to its highest level since February 2008. Generally speaking, seeing this home sales data make higher highs has been good news for the long-term path of stock prices. It is when the two diverge that problems start to develop.

That does not mean there is no room for worry, though. The real-time data shown above are saying that everything is wonderful for home sales. But our leading indicator for such data says that we could have problems in the months ahead.

Lumber futures prices act as a great leading indication for home sales, home prices, and even interest rates. In this next chart, I am comparing lumber prices to that same Census data series on new home sales, but with one key adjustment. I have shifted the lumber price plot forward by 12 months to help reveal how the home sales data tend to follow in the same footsteps a year later.

Lumber futures prices bottomed in 2009, and it took another year for that upturn to work its way into the housing market because of this lag. We are now at the 1-year anniversary of an important peak in lumber prices, and the path since then has been aggressively downward for lumber prices. This implies that we should see a corresponding slope change for new home sales.

The magnitude of that slope change is not as easily modeled. This leading indication picks up the changes in direction for home sales most of the time, but the magnitude of the housing response to lumber’s movements can be affected by other factors such as fed actions, household demographics, special tax credits, etc. That said, it is hard to imagine that the large downward movement we have seen in lumber prices over the past 12 months would not result in a significant response in the new home sales data.

If and when we see such a response in the new home data, then we can start worrying about a potential divergence relative to the DJIA in the top chart. For now, we do not have such a divergence evident, and so on that basis there is less reason to worry about a major bear market for stock prices.


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Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on This indicator has predicted every major market plunge in the past 30 years. What it’s saying now…

What the Federal Reserve will do when the next crisis comes

From Bill Bonner in The Bill Bonner Letter:

In the U.S., older voters control both political parties. They control most major corporations. They dominate all major industries. They have their pensions… their health care programs… their stocks… their bonds… their place in the sun.

Naturally, they want the benefits and rewards they believe they have been promised. More than that, they don’t want the sun to move!

This puts central-bank policies in a new light. They are intended not to create an open, entrepreneurial, and growth-oriented economy. Instead, they are meant to protect today’s wealth distribution, including today’s asset values. This can only be done by keeping the credit expansion going; it is the only way to keep the promises alive.

Central bankers are confronted with a dreadful reality. They know that markets don’t fear death. Markets can take their lumps and bounce back. Some people win. Some lose. Businesses are born; businesses die. Markets don’t care. They reward the winners, punish the losers, and move on.

But people care. And they control government. Government controls its central banks (even though they are said to be “independent”). Particular governments have particular supporters and they are almost always people who want to hold on to what they’ve got – retirees, “old and fat” businesses, Wall Street, the rich. Government’s role is to protect today’s claims on capital, even on capital that doesn’t yet exist.

Wall Street and crony businesses – by means of campaign contribution, job offers, speaking fees, and the like – has paid good money for this service. The old have voted for it. The government, and its central bank, will do all they can to provide it. And not merely because their clients want it; politicians and bureaucrats have their own power and wealth to think about, too. Nobody wants to lose what he has… or die.

If it came to a choice – save the free market economy or save the government – central bankers, who are essentially high-level bureaucrats, will choose to save the government.

That was the lesson of Zimbabwe 10 years ago. The government had made promises it couldn’t afford. Things were getting out of whack. Rather than let the economy adapt and adjust, the central bank fed it huge quantities of new money to finance government spending. In the end, the economy fell to pieces; the government of Robert Mugabe survived.

Likewise, developed governments have made huge spending commitments, none more extravagantly – as calculated by the fiscal gap – than the U.S. For the moment, central bankers claim to believe that extraordinarily low interest rates are just the ticket. Somehow (it has never really been explained), low rates are meant to overcome the natural forces of humans, markets, and economies. They will make old people act like young people, make overpriced markets act like cheap ones, and sluggish economies, deeply in debt, act like ones without a care in the world.

You never know, of course. But if this doesn’t work, the feds will continue to act like nurses to an old, deeply indebted society, rather than like midwives to a new one.

When the Crisis Comes

When another crisis comes – it could be as simple as a bear market – the Fed and other central bankers can be expected to act like the Bank of Zimbabwe. That is, they will protect the government at all costs, the economy be damned.

What effect, precisely, this will have on asset prices, I don’t know. Zimbabwe’s stocks were briefly among the world’s top performers – at least in Zimbabwean currency. In the end, though, with the economy in tatters, its companies were worth considerably less than they had been when the economy was still functioning properly.

So investors in U.S. stocks must be counting on central bank management to overcome the tidal forces of demography, debt, and market cycles. They are likely to be disappointed. Nowhere in the history books is there an example of it.

Central banks have not been attempting to manage an economy for very long. But there is no experience we know of that shows us that interest rates set by a group of bank industry insiders are better than those discovered by honest outcry in an open market. All of our theories tell us it is unlikely.

Nor has any central bank ever succeeded in solving the problem of too much debt, except by somehow letting debtors default or inflating away the bad debt. As far as the effect of demography, as far as we know, the authorities can do nothing about it. (Obviously, they can affect populations, but they cannot change the economic or social effects of demography.)

But people come to think what they must think when they must think it. Or as the old-timers on Wall Street put it: Markets make opinions.

A man, thrown suddenly into deep water, believes it is time to learn how to swim. A person appointed to a central bank in the 21st century cannot hold 19th-century views. He is in too deep. Notably, he is the guardian of a world economy with $200 trillion in debt. This is also a world, he believes, that cannot backtrack. New debt must be engaged in order to pay the old debt. A credit contraction may be a normal and natural thing, but not on his watch!

A central banker today has but a single mission – to save the system; that is how he will get his picture on Time magazine. But to save it from what? From old people, and the debts and obligations incurred on their behalf.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Crux note: Bestselling author Nassim Taleb called Bill’s newest book, Hormegeddon, “a must, must read” and suggested to “buy two copies, one for yourself, another for the nearest policy maker.” In Hormegeddon, Bill lays out a blueprint for protecting yourself from the government’s reckless spending. If you’re concerned about protecting yourself, your family, and your finances, you can’t afford to miss this offer.

Right now, you can receive a copy of Hormegeddon and a subscription to Bill’s new monthly publication, The Bill Bonner Letter, for a fraction of the normal retail price. Click here for all the details.


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Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on What the Federal Reserve will do when the next crisis comes

Trader alert: A super-important test for stocks could be here now

From Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions: 

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (monthly chart) has a unique long-term price test at hand, right now.

It’s a combo of resistance tied to the 1987 highs and 2002 lows and Fibonacci extension tied to the 2007 highs and 2009 lows.

We don’t see a combination like this too often. My gut says the outcome here could be a tad bit important.

Joe Friday, just the facts… The outcome at (1) might be important two months from now, and two years from now!


Recommended Links

Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on Trader alert: A super-important test for stocks could be here now

Traders are making a big bet on volatility

From Bloomberg: 

Speculators are again piling into an exchange-traded note that lets them bet on how long days of calm will last in the U.S. stock market.

The trade, using a six-year-old security known as VXX that sees more average daily volume than shares of Microsoft Corp. and Facebook Inc., has usually backfired amid the biggest bull market since the 1990s. That hasn’t curbed its popularity, with the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN poised for an eighth straight week of inflows, a streak not seen in three years. Shares outstanding in the note are at an all-time high.

Bears are betting this time will be different with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index flat for the year and stuck at the same level it reached in November. Owning the note could pay off should any number of concerns, from declining corporate profits to conflict in the Middle East, open the door to volatility in a stock market that has been mostly immune to it.

“It just feels like there’s a bit more of a worry that something could go awry,” said Steve Sosnick, an equity risk manager at Timber Hill, the market-making unit of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers Group Inc. “The winning streak of the buy-the-dips strategy could be coming to an end, as all winning streaks do.”

Noisy Market

Ways to speculate on how noisy the stock market will be have exploded in the last decade with the advent of products tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. Strategies include relatively simple hedges against equity losses, such as owning a security that aims to mimic the VIX.

VXX, one of the most popular ways to bet on bigger market swings, has absorbed $715 million in seven consecutive weeks of inflows, its longest streak of inflows since one ending in July 2012. The infusion of fresh cash has continued this week, swelling its market value to $1.5 billion, the highest since September 2013.

At the same time, short-sellers in VXX — people effectively betting the bull market will persist — have dropped out. Short interest has slid 35 percent since October, falling to the lowest in more than seven months last week, data compiled by Markit Ltd. show.

Sustained gains in U.S. stocks have proven elusive. The S&P 500 has dropped 2.3 percent this week, posting at least three straight days of losses for the fourth time in 2015. The measure has gone 27 days without advancing in back-to-back sessions, the longest stretch since 1994.


Recommended Links

Fed Guesses

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 2,058.34 at 9:38 a.m. in New York. The VIX dropped 1.5 percent to 15.56.

Traders have had to contend with a resurgence of turmoil in the Middle East, signs that U.S. company profits are in freefall and decreased buybacks from corporations as the first-quarter earnings season begins in April. Muddled messages from the Federal Reserve have spurred hedging, according to Justin Golden at Lake Hill Capital Management LLC.

“There are lots of different ways to hedge equity exposure at this critical time when investors are trying to interpret every word out of the Fed to gauge when rates lift off,” Golden, a partner at Lake Hill, wrote in an e-mail. His firm trades options on equity indexes and commodities. “Currently, VXX is the preferred method.”

Past surges in the VIX note’s popularity have been less than prescient in predicting more turbulence. Shares outstanding in VXX climbed to multiple records throughout 2013, a year when the S&P 500 gained 30 percent and U.S. shares posted one of the broadest advances in history. A high on July 24, 2014, came just before a 3.8 percent August rally in the equities gauge.

Daily fluctuations in U.S. stocks have made this retreat seem more painful than it actually has been, according to Dominic Salvino at Group One Trading LP, a market maker for VIX options. The S&P 500 is down just 2.9 percent from a record reached March 2 and the U.S. benchmark gauge has already endured declines of this magnitude three times in 2015.

‘Heavy Panic’

“There’s still not a heavy panic out there,” Salvino, a specialist on the CBOE floor for Group One Trading, said by phone Thursday. “You’re not seeing a whole lot of fear. It seems like a lot, but we’ve been up for three consecutive years and we’re still in the 2,100 range.”

The VIX climbed 2.3 percent to 15.8 on Thursday, below its average of 16.65 for 2015. Futures on the volatility gauge expiring in April ended Thursday at 16.48, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Contracts expiring in May closed at 17.83, while June futures ended the day at 18.28.

To U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s Bill Merz, the interest in VXX is indicative of a change in mindset among investors about stocks’ resilience as monetary policy diverges and other markets show signs of weakness. Positions held in the three largest exchange-traded products appreciating with VIX futures have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, Bloomberg data show.

“There’s been a big shift occurring in volatility ETFs and ETNs,” Merz, a strategist on the derivatives and structured products team at U.S. Bank, said by phone. His firm oversees $126 billion. “It appears as though investors are moving back to a long volatility bias versus a short one. VXX is the biggest indicator of that.”

Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on Traders are making a big bet on volatility

This simple fact about the market could save you a lot of money

From Dr. David Eifrig, MD, MBA, editor, Retirement Millionaire: 

Do yourself a favor and forget this next fact entirely…

The stock market has risen 206% over the past six years.

We recently hit the sixth anniversary of this stellar bull market. It was March 9, 2009 when the market bottomed after the financial crisis. If you had the guts to buy stocks at that time, you’ve done great.

However, the bull market is getting old. Six years is a long time. That makes a lot of individual investors and some market prognosticators nervous.

But it shouldn’t. Here’s why…

The stock market has no memory. It doesn’t know where it has been. It doesn’t care how much it has risen or fallen. Over any realistic time frame, it responds to economic strength, business fundamentals, and valuation.

Forget about the bull market. It doesn’t tell you what’s going to happen next.

Instead, we need to look at what’s happening in the market today and discern what that means for our investments. Here’s what we’re seeing right now…

Flights are full… A few weeks ago, my flight was loaded and I accepted $600 from the airline to take a later flight. It’s one of my favorite money-saving “hacks,” and it’s happening more frequently because the airlines are overbooking again.

Rental cars are sold out, too. I was recently asked if I’d take a minivan instead of my reserved compact car – a swap I was less happy to accept.

No question, the economy is doing well. But it’s not doing great

Yes, unemployment has improved from a peak of 9.9% in April 2010 down to 5.5% today. But that’s not really “low” unemployment. That’s about average.

The economy also doesn’t show any signs of inflation. If anything, deflation is a greater fear. And any student of economic history knows you can’t have a runaway boom without rising prices. It’s simply contrary to the “laws” of economics.

So while the economy has improved a great deal from its crisis six years ago, it still has a good deal of room to improve.

Meanwhile, stocks aren’t expensive…

Yes, the bull market has pushed the market up 206%. But the vast majority of that rise was just for stocks to get back to the prices they should have been at without the disruption of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Stocks are up just 32% from pre-crisis highs. Take a look:

Today, the S&P 500 is priced at about 18.5 times earnings. But consider this… during times of low interest rates and inflation (like we have now), stocks deserve a higher valuation.

With high interest rates, the expectation is that you’ll have more money in the future than you would with low rates, so the price you’ll pay for earnings today (the P/E ratio) drops when inflation and high interest rates are around.

But when interest rates and inflation are low… a dollar in the future is worth more than it would be if inflation has been eating away at it. That forces investors into risky assets like stocks. And that leads to higher valuations.

Even more interesting to me… since the crisis, corporate earnings per share have grown 934% – more than the market has risen. But that’s starting from a time when companies were taking drastic one-time write-offs. So the gains are not as wild as they first look. From the 2007 peak to now, earnings per share are up just 12%.

Meanwhile, corporate debt has declined dramatically. In 2007, using S&P 500 stocks as our barometer, corporations had roughly $0.39 borrowed for every $1 of assets. Today, that has dropped to $0.23. So these companies are much less leveraged, making their stocks safer in turn.

All of a sudden, some stocks don’t seem expensive. They seem cheap.

Few people realize it. Most investors are scared right now. But we’re excited for what could become the longest bull market on record.

Here’s to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,

Dr. David Eifrig

P.S. If you haven’t yet, I urge you to check out my new Big Book of Retirement Secrets. It includes things like how to legally hide money from the U.S. government… get silver from your local bank… a little-known IRS “hack” worth an extra $15,000 tax-free a year… and much more. Better yet, for a limited time you can get a copy for FREE. We just ask for $5 to cover shipping costs. Learn all about it and how to claim your free copy right here.


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Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on This simple fact about the market could save you a lot of money

This absurd tax sounds like a joke… But it’s not

From Mike “Mish” Shedlock at Global Economic Trend Analysis:

Zero Hedge had an interesting article today called, In Italy, They’re Now Taxing Shadows.

This is one of those stories in which you expect the headline to be a bit of an exaggeration. It wasn’t.

As Italian newspaper Leggo reports, store owners in Conegliano are now faced with the unfortunate (albeit comically absurd) proposition of paying taxes on shadows.

The rationale appears to go something like this: an awning casts a shadow on public property and therefore you must pay to use that property. 

Tax on Breathing Next?

I pinged that article off Pater Tenebrarum at Acting Man. He lives in Austria. Pater responded…

They actually got that idea from Austria, where we have the so-called (put down the coffee) “air tax.” No, it’s not a tax on breathing just yet. But if you have a shop sign that “occupies airspace,” you must pay a tax for it!

In Vienna, this is garnished additionally with the “subway levy,” which has to be paid regardless of whether one uses the subway or not. In fact, I think there is no government on the planet more inventive with regard to taxes, levies, and imposts of all sorts.

Illinois Tax Proposals

Earlier today I noted Proposed Illinois Tax Hikes: Financial Transactions, Millionaires, Guns, Sweetened Beverages, Satellite Providers, Fireworks, Progressive Income:

Additional tax-hike proposals are being thrown around without any idea of how much they might raise. State Rep. Rita Mayfield, D-Waukegan, proposed a 3.75% tax on guns and gun parts.

When asked how much revenue it would raise, she said she didn’t know but thought “if we can get a good million or so, I’ll take it.

State Rep. Lou Lang, D-Skokie, recently said that “creative lawmakers can come up with many options for new revenue.”

Creative Options

Let’s hope Lou Lang does not look at what’s happening in Italy or Austria, or a proposed tax on shadows or even breathing will soon be on the way.


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Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on This absurd tax sounds like a joke… But it’s not

Gold Coins as an Investment? Here’s Why You’re Doing It Wrong – Motley Fool

Gold Coins as an Investment? Here's Why You're Doing It Wrong
Motley Fool
Gold has long been viewed as a safe store of wealth in hard times. While that might be true, buying gold directly is kind of like stuffing dollar bills in your mattress. If investing in the yellow metal interests you, you should look at Newmont Mining

and more »

Saturday, March 28th, 2015 Invest, News, Wealth Comments Off on Gold Coins as an Investment? Here’s Why You’re Doing It Wrong – Motley Fool

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